Welcome to today’s exclusive & comprehensive round-up of all things Bayern Munich from Bayern insider Christian Falk. Featuring updates on Michael Olise, Marc Guehi, Lois Openda, and Dayot Upamecano.
Today’s top stories
- Could Bayern Munich steal Liverpool target Marc Guehi?
- Why Bayern missed out on several targets in the summer transfer window…
- Could Loïs Openda sign for Bayern next year?
- And plenty more on Uli Hoeneß, Nicolas Jackson, Angelo Stiller, and more!
How do Bayern Munich rank their transfer window?
There are two sides to this particular story. Bayern Munich themselves feel they had a very good summer transfer window, in part because they finalised the Luis Diaz deal from Liverpool. They now have another striker in the squad in the form of Chelsea loanee Nicolas Jackson. On top of that, they have the free transfers of a young national player like Tom Bischof and a boss in the defence in Jonathan Tah. So, you can see how Bayern are pleased with this business. However, the other viewpoint, which is shared by the majority reflecting on the transfer market, is that the Bundesliga champions missed out on Germany’s most interesting talent in Florian Wirtz. They also didn’t get the deal done for Nick Woltemade.
If Bayern had paid the price, I think they would have signed the player, because he wanted to go to Munich. But, you see, they can’t compete with Premier League clubs; the price was simply too high for Bayern Munich. I think Woltemade is a good player, but he’s not currently worth the price Newcastle paid. Ultimately, in England, the money clubs there pay for players of an international standard is the same as what German clubs pay for world-class players.
To add insult to injury, Bayern also missed out on Nico Williams and Jamie Gittens (surprise, surprise, to an English club). So, I think it’s fair to describe this as an average transfer window for FC Bayern. It’s okay because they now have a squad which will be capable of competing in the Champions League. Bayern will be one of the favourites again. However, they’ve invested in the now, as opposed to the future, with a player like Luis Diaz, who will be a great signing for three or four years; they won’t be able to sell him on. Other clubs, like Liverpool, have invested for the now and the future, with all of their signings likely to have resale value. Like Diaz, Jackson is not an investment for the absolute long-term; it’s just a loan deal. So, Bayern are maintaining their level, but there’s yet to be a serious evolution.
What’s going on behind the scenes at Bayern?
As ever, Christoph Freund (sporting director) and Max Eberl (director of sport) are seen as two separate things at Bayern Munich, especially as far as Uli Hoeneß is concerned. I think the problem for Eberl is that he hasn’t been given the freedom to conduct himself in the transfer market in the way he would like to. That’s always going to be tricky when you’re operating under the godfathers above you, like Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and Hoeneß, who have their own ideas about how the club should be run. They were prepared for Bayern to pay over €100m for Wirtz and go over €50m for Woltemade, no problem. But then Eberl’s hands were later tied with the loans-only policy. That’s why they missed out on Xavi Simons to Tottenham; that’s why they missed out on Christopher Nkunku to AC Milan. I think these would have been better investments. I think it’s better to buy Nkunku for the €42m Milan paid, and then you have a player you could still sell later if need be. Simons would also have been interesting, as he more than likely will have resale value.
When we’re discussing the behind-the-scenes operations at Bayern Munich, we have to consider Eintracht Frankfurt’s sporting director, Markus Krösche, whose name is consistently connected to Munich. Yes, he’s an interesting person for Bayern. But, in Frankfurt, he has already discovered paradise. Krösche has carte blanche, more or less, to do what he wants, and that’s working out well for the club. Offer him a job at Bayern, however, and I’m of the mind he’d think twice about working within much tighter constraints in Munich. So, I think this is a problem. Ideally, you need one person who makes the calls and is accountable for their mistakes. This is why it’s so difficult. We have to keep an eye on the situation of Max Eberl. It’s so quiet at the moment because in November there is the presidential election. Herbert Hainer will become president again, but I think the club wants to keep things generally quiet otherwise, because one of the board members, Michael Diederich (chief financial officer), is set to leave to join Deutsche Bank. So this is why Eberl will have more time, but you always have time… just until the next transfer window.
Harry Kane, Malick Fofana, Marc Guehi and the Bayern “shortlist”
If you look at the transfer market, what happened and what did not happen, there are two ways of doing business at Bayern Munich. The old way is to have a top target, the only one you want for a particular position, like Florian Wirtz. You go all in, and, normally, Bayern are successful in this approach. That’s the traditional approach of the bosses at FC Bayern. Max Eberl, however, has a different, more modern approach. That’s to commit to a shortlist and work through it until you find a player who fits the bill and is willing to join. Incidentally, that’s also how much of the Premier League works. You have witnessed the advantage of a shortlist when it came to Bayern’s search for winger reinforcements. First on the list was Nico Williams, then there was Gittens, and then Luis Diaz. But, the list didn’t die with Diaz; there were also players beyond the Colombian in case a deal didn’t work out. We know that Bayern talked with his Liverpool teammate Cody Gakpo, we have the confirmation from the player himself. One we can mention, as he will be an interesting option for the future is Malick Fofana of Lyon. They also talked to him, and there was an agreement in place in case Diaz didn’t leave Liverpool. Noboby knows if Fofana will be on the market next year again.
So, they also have Amine Gouiri from Marseille on this shortlist. Bayern are watching him. So, that’s how and why shortlists work. Max Eberl, of course, also had a list for the midfield. We know about Simons and Nkunku, both of whom couldn’t work out as loan deals. In this scenario, it doesn’t work. FC Bayern are set to play against Hamburg this weekend, and so will come up against Arsenal loanee Fabio Vieira. The Portuguese footballer was also offered to Bayern Munich. They did discuss him, but they felt a player from Arsenal couldn’t have the quality to play for Bayern. The same agency also offered Marco Asensio from PSG (prior to his switch to Fenerbahce). The player was interesting for Bayern, but his salary demands were too high. So, you see, this is the way they work.
In defence, you have Marc Guehi – sure, the Crystal Palace centre-back is interesting. But he also would have cost money this summer. With the window shut, they now want to see how the defence will perform. Now, they have to see if it works, or if they’ll want to sell Kim Min-jae. Guehi could be an option for the future, but on this list is also Castello Lukeba from RB Leipzig. So, you see, Bayern Munich now have lists for defence, midfield and forward line. Nobody knows what 2026 holds for Harry Kane. Will he make the step back to the Premier League to chase the goalscoring record? He’s only 47 away from matching Alan Shearer. If Bayern were to have a successful season and win the Champions League this year, you could see how Kane might say, “I have achieved everything in Munich”, and then go back to England. Nicolas Jackson, as we know, was on the list but was not initially the number one target; he climbed the list as the weeks went by.
Vincent Kompany’s squad fear
When I was at the match in Augsburg, and it seemed like the Jackson transfer wasn’t going to happen, you should have seen Vincent Kompany’s face. It seemed like he was really afraid the squad would not be good enough this season. We’re still at a point where the squad is okay, but for the big target in the Champions League, you need a lot of luck to avoid injuries. Last year, Bayern didn’t win the competition because of injuries. They had a big chance to make the final in Munich. Now, they’ve already got key players out injured in Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies. Don’t forget Hiroki Ito either! If this trio come back, of course, then the squad is good enough. But you’re always bound to have injuries when you’re pushing for titles in the backend of the season. So, I think Bayern Munich are aware of the fact that the squad is thin. They don’t have tonnes of quality waiting in the second string. But the strongest starting-XI, of course, is more than capable of winning the Champions League… if everyone is fit.
But the big teams, like Bayern Munich, always need the players in reserve, because there are always injuries that crop up. I think Vincent Kompany knows that. This is part of the reason why Bayern didn’t sanction Sacha Boey’s loan exit to Juventus. Normally, they would be happy to give him away, but then the squad would look even more thin!
Michael Olise to the Premier League?
The case of Michael Olise’s contract at Bayern Munich bears some similarity to Jamal Musiala’s case – if you wait a little too long, it’s getting difficult. In the past, clubs would happily open such talks a year before the contract expired. But now, things are different! If you see such quality as Olise possesses, you have to do it much earlier, otherwise, the Premier League will be quick to swoop. Manchester City are watching him, Liverpool are watching him. As long as his contract is running, you have a chance to keep him. Now, Bayern need to see if they can convince him that his future is in Munich. On the one hand, there is an argument to boost his salary in line with the quality of his performances, but on the other hand, Bayern still want to lower salaries throughout the squad. So, it’s not easy!
He’s on the way to becoming one of the most important players for one of the most important teams in Europe. Olise has a strong connection to Musiala and Davies. Now he has an opportunity to become a leader at Bayern Munich. I think this is the card the club needs to play with the footballer. On the other hand, Olise has had experience in the Premier League and knows what it’s like to play there. He wasn’t one of the superstars at that time, but he’s sure to be if he returns. So, this is a big danger! However, if he sees that in Bayern Munich you’re always competing for the Bundesliga and Champions League, this could be a decisive point to keep him in Bavaria!
Is Dayot Upamecano’s Bayern future still at risk?
If Dayot Upamecano leaves next summer, there are plenty of interested clubs. PSG, Manchester United and especially Real Madrid. The La Liga giants have already taken away David Alaba as a free agent, not to mention Chelsea’s Antonio Rüdiger. Now, both players are set to leave Madrid at the end of the season. So, if they can sign Upamecano on a free in this position, it’s a perfect solution. Bayern Munich must be clear that if they don’t meet his wage demands, they could lose him. In that case, a player like Marc Guehi would be an ideal option. They’ve already seen that one signing from Crystal Palace, Michael Olise, has worked out really well. So, perhaps that’s the level Bayern Munich are buying at now.
Uli Hoeneß’s harsh Nicolas Jackson comments
First of all, it wasn’t fair of Uli Hoeneß to talk about Nicolas Jackson in the manner he did, as it’s not a compliment to say he won’t get the specified number of matches. There are rumours that it’s perhaps also enough that he’s playing 45 minutes in each game (if he comes on at half-time) to activate the buy option, but that’s still a lot of playing time. He’ll struggle to get that regular time with Harry Kane being the clear number one option up front. However, if he’s doing well in the matches, he’ll get his chance to prove he’s the kind of player who has a future at Bayern Munich. Bayern need a solution for the future anyway, as Kane’s unlikely to keep going for the next five or so years. Jackson has quality, and now he’s in a position to show it. Still, it hasn’t become an easier task for him since Hoeneß’s public statement.
Beating the Premier League to future transfers
If an exciting young German is on the market, Bayern always has to push hard to ensure they beat out the competition. The danger of losing such young players to another league, especially the Premier League, has become considerably greater than it was in the past. If you don’t sign them early, it’s no longer the case that Bayern Munich remains the firm “next step”. That’s a serious concern for Bayern, given that their identity and culture is built on this idea that they have a core string of players from the German national team – that’s the DNA of Bayern Munich. This is why they signed Tom Bischof when he was very young. Of course, if players like Bischof are coming in so young, it can be difficult to offer them the required game time to safeguard their development!
Another target for the future could be VfB Stuttgart’s Angelo Stiller if he continues his upward trajectory domestically and with the German national team. He will be on the market for €37.5m [£32.5m], which is not a big price. However, if he’s doing so well, you can almost guarantee that the likes of Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona and other big clubs will come to the table. So, it’s not getting easier for Bayern Munich.
It’s not fair for Vincent Kompany, as he’s such a young coach. It would be different if he were Louis van Gaal’s age coming into the club from AZ Alkmaar, he would have a greater say and involvement in the transfer policy and philosophy. Bayern Munich are in a difficult position at the moment. They want to be one of the five big clubs in Europe, which they are, as they have a lot of quality in the team. But the fact remains that they have to find fresh ideas for the future.
Could Loïs Openda be a serious future target?
Openda is a player Max Eberl knows from RB Leipzig. However, he still has yet to prove that he’s ready for the next step in the Bundesliga and could become a key player at Bayern Munich. Ultimately, if he were the number one option for Bayern, he’d be at the club now instead of on loan at Inter Milan. He needs a good season in Italy, and then, perhaps, we’ll see!
→ READ MORE: The Bayern Insider: Liverpool sent clear Michael Olise message
→ READ MORE: Christian Falk’s Fact Files – Another Liverpool star off to Bayern?
